Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9o6gPQA6LA&t=3s
Business is never a fair fight. Incumbants have an advantage. Startups have to change the battlefield/game so they have an unfair advantage.
- Lage companies work by compounding improvements
- Startups can’t be better, they must have something that can’t be compared, it can only be chosen.
- e.g. People that buy tesla cybertrucks don’t create a spreadsheet comparing systems, they choose cybertruck as it’s unique.
Coming up with good idea:
- Inflections – An underlying fundamental external change.
- Insights – Non-obvious truth about the inflection learnt through effort.
- Founder / Future Fit

Inflections
- An underlying fundamental external change.
- Can be either: Regulatory, Tech or Cultural
- Culture example would be covid making remote working and remote doctors acceptable.
- Not a gradual increase e.g. NOT moores law but when there’s a 0-to-1 change. e.g. GPS added to phones.
- e.g. Better phone cameras + Better internet = Instagram
- e.g. GPS + Mobile Phones = Uber
- It kinds of answers Why now?
- Would DuckDB / AI be an inflection?
- Testing Startup Ideas, do you have an inflection:
- 1. What change has been introduced in the world?
- 2. What does it now enable or empower people to do?
- 3. What conditions are needed to enable it?
Insight
- Non-obvious truth about a set of inflections
- If it was obvious or consensus it would be too similar to incumbants.
- Initially most people should not like your idea, only a subset
- How? Look at the future, live there. Realise what is missing. Work backwards. e.g. Continuous Deployment, shift-left. SAAS.
- Want to find believers to create a movement
- For your idea, should be able to say 3 things that surprised you:
- My examples: CloudKDB the name helping. qsandboxes = quants running tests.
- No surprises = a false idea? and you may be too attached to it.
- Insight requires work and experimenting. e.g. Try one page landing website to see demand. Can AI predict divorce?
The “secret” needs to be earned as the market cannot exist today. - Non-Consensus = Not obvious you are correct at first.
- You are trying to wage assymetric warfare against the large incumbents.
Founder / Future Fit
- What is the likely team to solve this?
- e.g. Cutting edge = Young and nothing to unlearn
- e.g. Self-driving car = previous large corporate experience at Ford/Tesla/Waymo
- Who knows the most about this future and has the best network?
- You need either:
- Be building a product for your own needs
- Lighthouse Customers – That are leading the industry
- Or force yourself to the edge.
- Threshold of Desperation is High – Someone must NEED it
- If the customer can solve their problem and other way they will,
they don’t want to do business with a startup. - Force a choice not a comparison – People shouldn’t be neutral on your product. e.g. Trump e.g. Uber e.g. Airbnb
- If the customer can solve their problem and other way they will,
- Startups have few resources and poor execution, they can’t be better (execution)
- They have to sell something unique that people MUST have. My e.g. Online kdb training.
What do successful Startups Do?
- Movements = Small upset minority with beliefs causing them to rebel against the majority
- Story Telling – How things are now? Could be in future? How do we get there?
- Disagreeableness
- Early customers are motivated on belief NOT practicality.
- Early adopters share the beliefs of the founder and see startup as prime mover
- Eventually “What was heresy becomes conventional wisdom” e.g. Javascript is a proper language, Webapps can replace all apps……
- Movement example – Ride-sharing = Uber. The majority conventional solution were taxis, a few people saw a better way.
- Start with a higher purpose! e.g. Tesla doesn’t mention cars it says it’s for transitioning to sustainable energy.
- AirBnB – Movement example
- Founder never said “Hotels = bad”
- But he started a “Live local” movement. that turned the hotels homogenous appearance to a disadvantage. Rather than stay somewhere generic, stay somewhere unique. All the hotels investment was turned against it. Goliath was too large and heavy to avoid the slingshot.
Story Telling
- How things are now? Could be in future? How do we get there?
- Formula similar to Star Wars
- Dusty simple plan -> Mentor appears with Tool/Magic (Mentor = startup)
- Hero believes in tool -> Finds helpers -> Beats the Empire
- Language is important e.g. Twitter wasn’t called microblogs. my e.g. I used the word Dashboards in Pulse 😦 Should be apps.







